Taking Best Buy Private

The Wall Street Journal reports this morning on Best Buy founder and ex-Chairman Richard Schulze's plans for the struggling electronics retailer.  As you probably know, Schulze hopes to take the company private.  The paper reports that Schulze "envisions a turnaround plan for the electronics retailer that involves cutting prices to better compete against Amazon and other online retailers while ensuring that the in-store customer-service experience is as good as Apple's according to people familiar with the matter."   Naturally, such a plan to lower prices, while not reducing costs aggressively, will shrink profit margins.

We need to know much more about this turnaround plan before being able to evaluate its prospects thoroughly. However, this initial news has not put investors and analysts at ease (understandably).   The Wall Street Journal cites skepticism from Sanford Bernstein's retail analyst Colin McGranahan, who says, "As long as the top line is slowing you have to cut costs at a similar rate or your cash flow starts to suffer." 

Beyond the simple math problem cited by McGranahan, the strategy may be flawed.  Schulze appears to be trying to compete on price, while offering a premium experience a la Apple.  However, we know that Apple achieves that premium experience by spending generously on branding, training, design, and the like.  There is no free lunch.    They make up for higher costs in some areas by charging premium prices.   Schulze appears to want that premium experience, but if he doesn't get strong pricing, how will he generate decent profits?  The risk here is clear.  Could Best Buy end up stuck in the middle?   They might not have the cost structure to compete with Amazon, nor the premium image and experience to compete effectively with Apple. 

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Can Best Buy Be Saved?

After yesterday's post on Sears, a friend recommended that I read Larry Downes' article regarding Best Buy (posted on Forbes.com).   Downes article is titled, 'Why Best Buy is Going out of Business...Gradually."  Some may find the article a bit harsh, but sometimes the truth hurts.  Downes points out the disturbing numbers that should alarm Best Buy  management:

Consider a few key metrics.  Despite the disappearance of competitors including Circuit City, the company is losing market share. Its last earnings announcement disappointed investors.  In 2011, the company’s stock has lost 40% of its value.  Forward P/E is a mere 6.23 (industry average is 10.20).  Its market cap down to less than $9 billion.  Its average analyst rating, according to The Street.com, is a B-.

Interestingly, Downes does not attribute all the company's problems to the threat from online retailers such as Amazon.   In fact, he focuses a great deal on customer service.  One could argue that brick-and-mortar retailers must have superb customer service, because that in-store experience can be one of their key (and perhaps only) advantages over online retailers.  However, Downes explains (as others have) that Best Buy employees seem to spend a great deal of their time pushing products and services on customers, rather than trying to offer educated and informed answers to their questions.  They aren't offering the best solution so much as they are trying to drive sales of Best Buy's products. 

I haven't bought a major item at Best Buy recently, so I cannot confirm this observation by Downes.  However, I can describe a recent encounter at the Apple Store, where an associate spent a considerable amount of time explaining to me why I should spend $300 less on a particular item because it would meet my needs more effectively and cost efficiently.   I thanked him for the honesty, and he explained that their job wasn't just to sell product but to make sure we had the best solution and best experience possible.  Sales would come if they did that part of their job.

Beyond the issue of customer service, I think Best Buy has to answer many of the questions that I posed for Sears in yesterday's post.   In particular, I think it needs to refine the relationship between its online store and its physical locations.  That connection should be clean and seamless given the types of products that Best Buy sells.  The firm needs to think about the choice of product categories in which to compete, the amount of real estate dedicated to each product category, and the optimal size and layout of the stores.   As J. Benjamin Stevens wrote on this terrific blog post, "Apple Retail Stores are many times smaller than Best Buy, Costco and Walmart. However its sales per square foot figures are off the charts. In 2009 an Apple Store in Manhattan had sales of $35,000 per square foot, while Best Buy’s national sales per square foot total was $930 for the same year."

One final point:  Downes suggests that Best Buy is facing a gradual demise, not a sudden one.  It reminds me of what governance expert Jay Lorsch once wrote in a book about boards of directors.  He argued that gradual crises often are more difficult to address than sudden ones.  The gradual crisis emerges slowly and in a manner that enables people to downplay the threat or underplay the need for a dramatic response.  

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