JC Penney vs. Zara: How to Reduce Markdowns

Frequent markdowns can eat into a retailer's margins quite substantially.  No wonder, then, that Ron Johnson - the CEO of JC Penney has tried to wean the department store off of its reliance on discounts and sales.  We all know, however, that he has had limited success to date.  In fact, sales have plummeted as customers have revolted at the dramatic reduction in sales and markdowns. 

Let's compare JC Penney to Zara for a moment.  Zara is a Spanish apparel retailer that has done remarkably well over the past decade or so.   Zara manages to offer fewer markdowns than many rivals, and when it does discount its clothing, they price reductions are smaller than those offered by competitors.  How does Zara do it?  They pursue a "fast fashion" strategy, whereby they make smaller batches of fashion items - a substantial percentage of which they make in their own factories.  They change their product mix often, and they react quickly to changing trends and consumer tastes.  Customers know that many lines of clothing will have limited numbers of items, and that those items may not be on the shelf one month later.  As a result of this nimble strategy, Zara minimizes the downside of "fashion misses" in their product line.  Because they don't produce huge runs of some of these items, they have much less inventory left over if a new product is not a hit with consumers.  Therefore, they have less of a need to mark down those clothes.  

In short, Zara has reduced its dependency on markdowns, but they have not done it simply by declaring that there will be less discounts.  They have built an entire strategy that makes it much less likely that they will need to discount items.  JC Penney hasn't yet built that comprehensive strategy to support its  new pricing policy.  As a result, JC Penney has struggled. 

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Stumbles at JC Penney

As we all know by now, Ron Johnson's first moves at JC Penney have not gone smoothly (to say the least).  He put forth a bold new pricing strategy that left customers befuddled, and those consumers simply stopped shopping at his stores.  Sales dropped sharply, sending the stock tumbling.   Now the company has announced a shift in pricing strategy.  They've made it simpler.  The firm will cut prices across the board, while moving to a two-tiered pricing structure:  EDLP on most items, with sharp discounts on clearance items. 

Many people have criticized Johnson's pricing maneuvers.  Rather than focusing on the CONTENT of his pricing strategy, I'd like to comment on the TIMING of his moves.  According to the Wall Street Journal, Johnson's longer term strategy for the retailer is to focus on creating a "department store full of vendor-branded and themed boutiques." The company launched its first such boutique yesterday in Manhattan - a jeans boutique featuring Levi's, Arizona, and iJeans by Buffalo.   My question is this:  Wouldn't it have been more effective to launch the boutiques FIRST and then move to a new pricing structure?   Didn't the firm need to get the store layout and experience improved FIRST and then try to wean customers off of constant discounts?   I think the timing issue, in a way, is a more interesting strategic question than the issue of precisely how JC Penney should price its items. 

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How To Anger Your Best Customers

Have you ever become angry when you paid full price for an item, and then learned that the company had put that item on sale shortly after your purchased it?   We have all been there.   Now scholars have examined the long term effects of such deep discounting. 

Kellogg School of Management Professor Eric T. Anderson and MIT Professor Duncan I. Simester conducted a study to examine whether such deep discounting angered customers, particularly the company's best customers.  Beyond creating anger, they wanted to know if that negative emotional reaction affected long term sales.  Here's what the researchers did, according to Kellogg Insights:

"Anderson and Simester worked with a retailer that specialized in selling durable goods, like software, electronics, apparel, or books. In the past, the retailer had typically kept prices high but frequently offered small discounts and the occasional deep discount. Anderson and Simester worked with them to create test catalogs to determine whether and which customers would be antagonized by price changes. (Most of the retailer’s customers purchased via catalog at the time of the study.) The two types of test catalog were mailed according to the regular schedule and included 86 products, 36 of which were discounted by varying amounts depending on which test catalog people received. The deep-discount version offered the 36 items at an average of 62 percent off, while the shallow-discount version offered an average discount of 34 percent."

The scholars studied customers who paid full price for items and then received a catalog offering steep discounts.  “When you look at this segment of customers, what you see is that a substantial portion just stop buying,” Anderson said. “We call this the boycott effect.”   Customers offered the steep discounts placed substantially fewer new orders than those people who were offered smaller discounts!  Customers who received the steep discount catalog placed 14.8%  fewer subsequent orders than those who received the shallow-discount version. Moreover, many people who were offered subsequent deep discounts simply ordered nothing at all in the months that followed.   It turns out the "boycott effect" lasted for awhile.   The scholars found that customers who reacted poorly to the steep discounts tended to buy less items from that retailer for the next twenty months! 

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Do Colleges Need to Change Their Pricing Model?

CNNMoney writer Blake Ellis wrote today about the substantial tuition reduction enacted by the University of Charleston in West Virginia.   According to the article, "After seeing enrollment decline for the first time in a decade, the University of Charleston, in West Virginia, slashed tuition by 22% for the upcoming school year hoping to entice more students."  Interestingly, applications haven't increased since the move, but deposits have risen substantially.  Obviously, the jury is still out on the move. 

How did the university afford the move?   They cut some costs, but they also chose to reduce financial aid.  Thus, the net price did not actually fall by 22%.  What rationale drove the change in pricing strategy?  Here is an excerpt from Ellis' interview with the university's president, Dr. Edwin Welch:

We realized parents and families were now considering the overall price, not just the discount [financial aid and scholarships] they would be able to get. As universities we tend to market education the same way Joseph A. Banks advertises clothes, thinking the advertised price is not that important but the discounts are the most important part. But that's what is driving middle-class students away. So it seemed we needed to take a fresh look.

Could he be right?  Does the price tag at many universities drive away certain families, because they fixate on the overall list price rather than the net price (after aid and scholarships)?  After all, families don't learn their net price until late in the process?  By then, perhaps the overall list price has framed their view of a school.  I wonder if other schools might try this "Everyday Low Pricing" model of college tuition, in hopes that prospective students will look first at them because they have the lower "everyday price."  

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NetFlix: Value-Based Pricing Run Amok?

As everyone knows by now, NetFlix spurred a major consumer backlash with its significant pricing increase.  As I considered how they might have arrived at this decision, I began to focus on how NetFlix management might have analyzed the value that they provide for consumers.   In value-based pricing, companies examine the customer's economics, and they evaluate the cost to the consumer of purchasing an alternative.   How would this work for NetFlix?   Management would examine the customer's options, and they would calculate how much consumers would have to spend to purchase a service roughly equivalent to the one that NetFlix is offering.  If NetFlix executives examined it this way, then you can see why they might have arrived at a decision to raise price significantly.

Some have argued persuasively that they don't see a customer-friendly alternative to NetFlix at the $10 per month price point, with access to new releases and a more extensive library of older movies (which NetFlix provides through a combination of DVDs and streaming).  Thus, I can see how the decision was made.  It doesn't mean that it was a smart move.  They clearly created quite a backlash.  Moreover, as Nilofer Merchant wrote yesterday, they might have communicated and executed a price increase in a way that did not set off such a furor.

What will most interesting, though, will be to see what customers do, not what they say on social media.  How many will actually follow through on the threat to abandon NetFlix, and where will they turn.  NetFlix seems to be betting that the consumer's options aren't all that attractive, and many will end up sticking with the company despite all the complaining.  We shall see. 

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Verizon to end unlimited data plans

Verizon appears ready to eliminate unlimited data plans from new offerings this summer. The move emulates rival choices made in the past year or so. Will unlimited data ever come back? Perhaps. Here is what one has to consider. The demise of unlimited data plans can be traced to two key events. First, the marginal cost of additional usage by the consumer is no longer necessarily zero. Remember that price falls toward marginal cost in hotly contested markets with high fixed costs and low marginal costs. Heavy usage can tax networks as we have seen, and video and other apps soak up bandwidth (meaning marginal costs do rise at some point). Second, recent consolidation means fewer rivals. With fewer competitors, the chances of maintaining this pricing increase goes up. With many rivals, the chances of some players cutting price (by offering unlimited plans) would be much higher.

Could unlimited plans return? Well, if the marginal costs of incremental usage go back toward zero as technology evolves and bandwidth increases, or if new entrants emerge, then we may indeed see them return.

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