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Showing posts with label economies of scale. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economies of scale. Show all posts

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Budweiser: Can It Go Global?

Posted on 6:19 AM by Unknown
According to the Wall Street Journal, Anheuser Busch Inbev is making a big push to take the Budweiser brand global.   A quick look at the brand's performance in the United States tells us why the company is focused on expanding Budweiser's global reach.  The historic brand's consumption in the US has fallen for twenty-four straight years, and it has now fallen to number 3 in market share in the United States (behind Bud Light and Coors Light).   Budweiser faces challenges winning over customers in foreign markets though.  As the Wall Street Journal reports:

"Adolphus Busch launched a pale lager in St. Louis fashioned after beer from the Bohemian town of Budweis—has never won over most beverage connoisseurs. It scores only a 56, when any rating below 70 is "poor," on the website Beer Advocate. In Europe, where some beer brands have been popular for 500 years, Budweiser 'is not seen as a real beer by beer aficionados,' says Ian Shackleton, a London-based analyst with Nomura."

Budweiser faces a more fundamental challenge though.   In global markets, the local beer brands still dominate.  Many companies, including Anheuser Busch Inbev, have pursued acquisitions across the globe, because they understand this dynamic.  In the article, SAB Miller CEO is quoted: 

"We remain convinced beer is fundamentally a local business,'' says Alan Clark, SABMiller's chief executive in an interview. Although SABMiller is expanding international distribution of brands such as Miller Genuine Draft and Italy's Peroni, it puts far greater stock in its local beers, like Snow. "There's an emotional resonance we find consumers have with beer brands which frankly is different," he says. "We just see it continuing."

Of course, the question is:  How large are those global economies of scale, if local brands dominate so much.  What value does the global parent add?   I wish that Alan Clark had commented on those core questions.
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Posted in Anheuser Busch Inbev, beer industry, Budweiser, economies of scale | No comments

Friday, July 19, 2013

Can It Scale Quickly? Is it the Wrong Question for Many Startups?

Posted on 4:11 AM by Unknown
Does your business model enable you to scale quickly?   That's the question facing many start-ups these days as they seek capital from investors.   The question proves most pertinent for tech start-ups, but it seems to be thrown at founders in many different kinds of companies these days.   Is there a danger to focusing on this question?   I would argue that founders and investors must be aware of two significant downsides.    First, focusing on scale, and trying to scale too quickly, can cause start-ups to lose sight of their target market.  Who precisely do they aim to serve, and who they do not plan to serve?    A strategy can become "all things for all people" very quickly as the scale question comes to dominate conversations.   Second, founders and investors often can underestimate the challenges associated with scaling quickly.    Sometimes, it makes sense to take a bit of time to get the business model right before trying to grow rapidly.   I find it very interesting that many investors proclaim the mantra of fast iteration and experimentation, yet they also push for scale at the same time. 
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Posted in economies of scale, start-ups | No comments

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Amazon and Online Grocery

Posted on 7:36 AM by Unknown
Forbes has an article titled, "Why Amazon is Happy Breaking Even With Online Grocery."  Author Tom Ryan argues that the firm doesn't plan to generate profit from the online grocery business, but simply to break even.  According to the article, based in party on research by RetailNet, "It’s all about helping Amazon attain the scale to support its ambition to build a national same-day delivery shipping model."   I don't quite understand this point about scale economies.  Amazon isn't going to be shipping books on the same truck as vegetables.  It is not likely to be using the same distribution center.  What is the scale advantage for other products from having an online grocery business?  

Later on, the article provides a much stronger argument for Amazon's entry into the online grocery business, a market where it has traditionally been very difficult to make money.   Quoting an analyst at RetailNet, Ryan writes, "Finally, Amazon views steady grocery delivery as a 'powerful way to drive frequent customer interaction,' and opens up avenues to entice consumers to shop for other products with each order."  Now we have the key rationale!   Consider why Target has expanded its grocery offerings.  It wants to build traffic in its stores.   Target knows that the margins are very slim on grocery items.  However, when guests come to buy groceries, they also buy apparel, home goods, and the like.  The firm can make healthy margins in those areas.   Target has learned that offering more grocery items brings people to its stores more often, and that foot traffic yields higher margin sales in other departments.  Amazon clearly believes that the same dynamic applies when people shop its website.  Engaging people to buy groceries will hopefully yield more sales of books, electronics, and other items that do produce better margins.   Moreover, Amazon may be able to use its strong predictive algorithms to help drive those kinds of profitable sales, based on a deep understanding of this online grocery customer.  
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Posted in Amazon, economies of scale, grocery, logistics, Target | No comments

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Our Obsession with Scale

Posted on 1:18 PM by Unknown
Nilofer Merchant has a terrific blog post on HBR today.   She describes "our obsession with scale."   She explains:

Giants have a view of the world that often makes new markets "too small" to pursue. When we see scale as the thing they must do all by ourselves, then only "big" opportunities are worth investing in. Scale, in the traditional view, means that what they produce and how they function has to be about efficiency, productivity and being bigger than the other guy — because that is, above all, the source of profits. And for sure, it means they skip right past $50M or $100M or even $500M opportunities because they are not "big enough" to work on. And it is this thinking — this mindset — that is the central reason so many industries (automotive, financial, health care, and even education) and their companies are failing all around us today. It's not that our economy is stalled, but that our thinking has stalled. It means that industries are stagnating because nothing new ever shows up as a $1B market right away — market opportunities show up first as the $50M or $100M opportunities. And markets that need to be served should not be killed off because the giants can squash it. 

I agree wholeheartedly.  I have argued on this blog that executives often convince themselves that:

a.  economies of scale exist in every industry
b.  further economies of scale can be exploited in their industry
c.  no such thing as diseconomies of scale exist (or they are far from reaching that point

 We know that these three beliefs are often proven incorrect... yet, companies and their leaders continue to adhere to these notions.   Why?  In some cases, executives like to lead large organizations.  Slimming down, divesting units, and reducing scale doesn't prove very popular.  In other cases, we see leaders whose firms are struggling... and they see a merger to capitalize on supposed scale economies as a "easy" way to juice profits when organic growth opportunities don't seem apparent.   At the same time, leaders often are looking for new organic growth opportunities that will "move the needle" - i.e. impact the top line in a significant way.  Of course, knowing which new ventures will become very large businesses is hard to predict in advance!   Thus, we see too many large firms rejecting new opportunities because they think they will be small revenue generators... only to be proven incorrect years later.
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Posted in economies of scale, strategy | No comments

Friday, June 3, 2011

Groupon's IPO

Posted on 5:14 AM by Unknown
Groupon announced yesterday that it would be issuing an initial public offering soon.   Many analysts expressed concern about the high valuation coupled with the significant losses that have mounted as the company grows rapidly.  Some analysts have talked of this IPO as further evidence of a bubble in new tech firm valuations.

How do we make sense of these concerns?   We have to ask ourselves:  Has Groupon built a significant sustainable competitive advantage?   Are they a successful first mover, or will they be like many early movers in technological industries who actually end up being overrun by later entrants?   To answer these questions, we have to look at several factors.  First, does the company's business model have significant scale economies?   If so, then they can amortize fixed costs as they grow, and therefore, they will become quite profitable.  Second, does the business model have substantial network effects?   Amazon's model has both scale economies and network effects.  Thus, Amazon turned early losses into sizeable profits as it grew, and it built a quite formidable competitive advantage.   At first glance, it does not appear that Groupon has the type of economies of scale and network effects enjoyed by Amazon.   The model seems to very labor intensive, with new staff required to drive new growth.  The jury, of course, is still out though.  As the company goes public and we learn much more about its finances and strategy, we will be able to discern this more accurately. 

Competitive advantage may derive from other sources as well. Groupon itself focuses on its relationships with local merchants.  Undoubtedly, they do have ties at the local level that are quite impressive. Yet, questions remain to be answered.   Have they built relationships that will be hard to duplicate or break?  Are there significant switching costs for these merchants?  The barriers to entry do not look huge at this point, as we have seen a flood of entrants into this space.  Of course, some big existing players also want a piece of this pie, and so we will have to watch the likes of Google, Amazon, and Facebook to see if Groupon can sustain its early lead.
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Posted in economies of scale, first mover advantage, Groupon, IPO | No comments
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